Did you know that this September has been one of the warmest Septembers on record in Boise? Will that trend continue into the winter months? The latest seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service may surprise you. 

And we say you'll be surprised mainly because the Farmer’s Almanac prediction for Winter 2023-2024 titled “The Brrr is Back” has gone viral, just like their “Shake! Shiver! Shovel!” forecast did in 2022 and “Frosty Flip-Flop Winter” did in 2021. That headline will appear everywhere. People will act like it’s gospel, but just remember that the forecast is put together by a “weather prognosticator” who goes by a fake name and doesn’t share the formula they use to make the forecast.

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Listen, we totally understand the interest in long-range winter forecasts. Especially if you’re someone who lived through Boise Snowpocalypse 2016-2017. The Farmer’s Almanac isn’t the ONLY long-range forecast on the internet. The National Weather Service’s “Climate Prediction Center” has published its three-month outlook for December, January and February 2023-24, which covers “meteorological winter” and when it comes to Boise. It’s a far cry from headlines you’ve seen like “This is Why Boise Is In for a Frigid Winter This Year.” 

Will Boise Actually Be Frigid This Winter?

NOAA/National Weather Service
NOAA/National Weather Service
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According to the National Weather Service’s seasonal temperature outlook, that headline is grossly exaggerated. The long-range forecast they published in August shows that there’s a 40-50% chance that Boise will actually experience ABOVE normal temperatures this winter. So what does “average” look like? Here’s what historical data tells us. 

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Will Boise Experience Another Snowpocalypse?

NOAA/National Weather Service
NOAA/National Weather Service
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If you were hoping we’d say “yes,” we hate to disappoint you. Probably not. For now, it looks like Southwest Idaho is going to have an equal chance of more or less than normal precipitation. (Northern Idaho could see less than normal.) So what could that mean? Take a peek at what’s considered “normal” for Boise. 

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It’s worth noting that long-range forecasts are tough to trust, no matter where they come from and it’s completely possible for this forecast to change before meteorological winter actually begins. Plus, we know that in Boise, if you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes. It will change! These winter weather extremes are definitely a testament to how unpredictable Boise weather can be.

KEEP READING: 15 of Boise's Wildest Winter Weather Extremes

For many of us Snowmageddon 2016-2017 is a not so distant memory. Some people really miss seeing that much white stuff in Boise. Others dread the possibility of it happening again. How common is it? We dug into some historical weather data from the National Weather Service to see just how extreme it was compared to some of the other winter extremes Boise's experienced.

15 Signs Boise Could Be in For a Harsh, Unforgiving Winter

According to the Farmer's Almanac, these are some mostly non-weather signs that Boise could be in for a harsh winter. Have you noticed any of them happening?

Sneak a Peak at 19 of McCall Winter Carnival's Spectacular Snow Sculptures

McCall Winter Carnival continues through Sunday, February 5! These are 19 of the 24 sculptures waiting for you when you arrive.

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