What Could El Niño Mean for Idaho’s Winter This Year?

I know, it’s September.   We’re barely thinking about putting the shorts away, and I’m already wondering about snow.

But I saw something this week that got my attention.  It looks like we could be heading into a pretty significant El Niño this winter and my first thought was:  Okay…what does THAT mean for us here in Idaho?

It Looks Like El Niño Is Really Coming to Idaho

Actually, it’s already here.  NOAA officially has an El Niño Advisory in effect, and as of its latest update, forecasters said El Niño was strengthening.

They’re giving it a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter of 2026-27.

Northwest Climate Club

That’s quite a change from earlier this year.  We started 2026 coming out of a weak La Niña. NOAA declared that La Niña finished this spring, and conditions eventually flipped the other direction.

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So what does that mean when we’re scraping windshields and watching the mountains for snow?

Well, we MIGHT have a warmer winter.

Cory Mikhals

Idaho Could Be Warmer Than Normal This Winter

A NOAA meteorologist recently looked at previous El Niño winters for Boise, Lewiston and Pocatello, and the odds appear to be leaning toward Idaho running about one to three degrees warmer than a normal winter.

Historically, strong El Niño winters in Idaho have also tended to be warmer and drier than normal on average.

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Now, before anybody who bought a Bogus Basin season pass starts panicking, that does NOT mean we’re not getting snow.

Cory Mikhals

It doesn’t mean Boise won’t have a big snowstorm and it definitely doesn’t mean somebody can tell us in September how many inches of snow we’re getting this winter.

Climate patterns don’t really work that way.  In fact, NOAA is pretty careful to point out that even when El Niño gets extremely strong, the usual El Niño weather impacts become more likely... not guaranteed.

A city street with a large building in the background

El Niño can tilt the odds, but it can’t tell us whether I’m going to be shoveling my driveway on January 12th.

So right now?  I’d say the early signs point toward a warmer than normal Idaho winter, but Mother Nature still gets the final vote and living in Idaho, you know, she doesn’t always read the forecast.